Maybe its time to get rid of election polls. Tyler's intense research leads to stimulating and surprising . The crew asks whether Biden's approval rating could be boosted by the American Rescue Plan and how popular he'd have to be to avoid a backlash at the midterms. The crew looks back at what Americans thought about some of the biggest political and cultural issues of 2021. Cuomo denied the allegations, but has faced overwhelming pressure to resign from fellow Democrats, including President Joe Biden. Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. fivethirtyeight podcast transcriptsapplications of stepper motor ppt. The crew previews what to expect on Election Day and listens to some of the most common types of campaign ads aired this cycle. Edit your transcribed text. They also debate how reliable exit polls are in determining what motivates voters and consider how Democrats were able to overcome intra-party disagreements to pass a $1 trillion infrastructure bill. Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what hes learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. Each week, host Jody Avirgan brings you stories and interviews about how data is changing our lives. Download this theme at theoneamradio.bandcamp.com/track/whatspoint-theme. Earlier this month, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. The crew discusses why the country responded to the attacks the way it did and how healthy American democracy is today. So, the usual. Political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan suggest that focusing only on the Left/Right divide in American politics is reductive. Galen Druke speaks with Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio about whether that trend continued in the 2022 midterms and what it all means for 2024. . They also discuss Bidens sweeping vaccine mandate -- how Americans feel about vaccine mandates in general, how effective they are and if Bidens is legal. The crew discusses what high gas prices have meant for politics historically and outline the debates in Washington over how to bring those prices down. Local news is disappearing across the country. They also ask whether a sentiment analysis suggesting that the press is more negative on Biden than it was on President Trump is a "good or bad use of data.". They also try to get to the bottom of whether Americans support the Parental Rights In Education Bill -- or what its critics call the Dont Say Gay Bill -- which Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law last week. As we discussed earlier this week, House Democrats plan on passing a one point nine trillion dollar American rescue plan by the end of the week. As Emanuel Macron has occupied the middle of the political spectrum in France, with a focus on cooperation among European nations, the opposition parties have moved toward a nationalist, populist agenda. What do we know about the novel coronavirus, and what do we know we don't know? They also discuss Democratic lawmakers' varying views on how to approach Senate rules and the filibuster. The crew discusses what's in the "Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Act" and why Senate Democrats have taken it up despite unmoving opposition. FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast | Free Listening on Podbean App FiveThirtyEight Politics https://feeds.megaphone.fm/ESP8794877317 Follow Share 13.5k Followers 200 Episodes Category: Politics Last Update: 2023-02-21 Claim Ownership They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterms primaries. They also look at the politics of two hot button issues in the Senate and speak with Carlos Odio of Equis Research about how Latino voters are viewing the two parties in 2022. Democrat and former state Rep. Mary Peltola won Alaska's special congressional election on Wednesday, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III. They also ask whether it's too early to conclude that the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe has had little impact on the political environment. Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures for days because of severe blackouts. And lastly, they check-in on the gubernatorial recall efforts in California that are very likely to result in a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom. With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency. The podcast turns its focus abroad, to Canada and Germany, to see how other democracies' electoral systems work and what cleavages their politics are facing. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over the past century, through successive crises, the Fed has accumulated the power to choose winners and losers . They also ask whether the Republican Party can coalesce around an alternative to former President Donald Trump and whether President Bidens recent dismissal of the polls is a good or bad use of polling. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew covers both the results of the Ohio Senate primary and the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would overturn Roe v. Wade. Crime analyst Jeff Asher discussed what those numbers can -- and can't -- tell us, and explains the challenges in collecting crime data. They play a game of "Guess What Americans Think," in which the panelists have to guess Americans' opinions on a wide variety of topics, including Elon Musk, inflation and Britney Spears. They also debate the meaning of a recent poll from Axios that suggests Americans are exhausted. Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the industry. is it illegal to wear military uniform in australia. They also look back at 2021, try to pinpoint the most consequential political events of the year and discuss how their understanding of American politics was challenged. The Sporkful production team includes Dan Pashman, Emma Morgenstern, Andres O'Hara, Tracey Samuelson, and Jared O'Connell. Galen speaks with Atlanta Journal Constitution reporters Tia Mitchell and Greg Bluestein about how the Georgia senate runoff is looking in the final stretch. With one week left until Election Day, the crew analyzes some of the high-profile races and which issues Americans care about most as they enter the voting booth. They also consider whether the ensuing confirmation process will impact the countrys broader political environment in a Midterm election year. The majority of the coverage did not show signs of bias, such as articles on immigration, midterm elections and the Jan. 6 hearings. The crew discusses Manchins rationale and where Democrats might go from here. Senior writer and legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the Justices approached the question and what Americans think about abortion policy. Galen speaks with him. The crew checks in on the California recall election and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping a Wyoming primary. The crew debates the value of polling whether Americans want Biden and Trump to run again in 2024. They also discuss how the country has changed demographically and geographically over the past decade, based on the newly released 2020 census data. MANAGER'S SALARY. The crew analyzes new polling suggesting Americans support enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine and banning the purchase of Russian oil even if it increases gas prices. Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. Feb. 28GLASTONBURY When Jonathan K. Luiz starts work as town manager March 31, he will be making $190,000 per year. In the wake of the January 6th attack on the Capitol, academics and journalists have increasingly taken the possibility of future political violence in America seriously. FiveThirtyEight Politics ABC News (US) Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. From 2008 to 2019, the percentage of people who said they got their news from local papers fell by more than half. While it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to convict the former president, the evidence presented could help shape the views of the public regarding what happened at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and game-changers every week. They also review the mostly finalized congressional maps for the cycle and discuss new polling on American polarization. As Congress considers legislation that would decriminalize marijuana and end the sentencing disparity for crack and cocaine offenses, Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight contributor Lester Black about what Americans think should be done about drugs and how politicians are responding. In light of new data showing union membership at its lowest point since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began counting, they also look at how that decline has shaped U.S. politics. Nate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk." 0:00:00 In this installment, the crew discusses how any potential changes could reshape the nominating process. They also scrutinize a new survey that suggests most Americans think "The West Wing" and other political TV shows are reflective of how politics works. We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our democratic systems. Election Day in Georgia is just a week away, so the crew shook off their turkey hangover to talk about what to expect in Georgias second Senate runoff in two years. During a punchy episode of FiveThirtyEight's now daily politics podcast on Wednesday, Silver pushed back forcefully on anyone out there accusing him or his website of getting the 2020 election. Nevada Democrats introduced a bill on Monday that would change their state's presidential nominating contest from a caucus to a primary and also dislodge New Hampshire from its position as the first primary in the nation. The crew discusses how a bipartisan gun control deal was reached and if this unwritten legislation could be passed by the end of the year. Saturday, February 25, 2023. They also discuss shifting American views on foreign policy and the status of the infrastructure and budget bills currently being considered in the Senate. Nathaniel Rakich discusses why it's difficult to draw a broader conclusion about the political environment based on the result. They also discuss the latest developments in the current round of redistricting. Hours before we freeze the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast tonight, it shows that Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate and are favored to win the House. If you don't already have iTunes, you can download it here. FiveThirtyEight's COVID-19 podcast is laser-focused on evidence. It's easy. Transcripts by Erin Wade. They also analyze a new poll from the University of New Hampshire that shows the states likely GOP primary voters favoring Florida Gov. They determine whether we live in a free or repres Galen and Nate react to former President Trump's entrance into the 2024 presidential race and debate he stands in a possible matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. The crew discusses how debates on both the debt ceiling and the future of Rep. George Santoss career might unfold. By doing so we are missing another important divide, one that may actually run counter to the idea that America is hopelessly conflicted between red and blue. They also ask why support for gun control measures hasn't translated into new laws and look at steps the Pew Research Center is taking to ensure they have a representative sample of Republicans in their panel surveys. The crew discusses what these results mean for the midterms this fall and where other indicators of the political environment are pointing. 02:13:21 - Heartland POD on Twitter - @TheHeartlandPOD Co-HostsAdam Sommer @Adam_Sommer85 Rachel Parker @RaichetP Sean Diller @SeanDillerCO https://heartlandp They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 percent of Americans believe in the QAnon conspiracy theory is a "good or bad use of polling.". Finally, they analyze why Bidens approval rating has increased by nearly five points since late July. Tia Mitchell, of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, joins the podcast to discuss what to expect from former President Trump's second impeachment trial. What does the bench of Democratic leadership look like beyond Biden? The team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. The crew discusses the political fallout from the Supreme Courts decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Then Nathaniel Rakich and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join to discuss how abortion has played a role in elections this year and when we should know the results of next months midterms. Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss the messages that Senators sent and whether we were able to glean anything about what kind of Justice Jackson would be. The board of directors voted Friday to accept the resignation of David Held, effective June 1, and will then offer him the same job on . Transcript: Ezra Klein Interviews Ta-Nehisi Coates and Nikole Hannah-Jones July 30, 2021 Every Tuesday and Friday, Ezra Klein invites you into a conversation about something that matters, like. The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually harassed 11 women. Later, Monica Potts joins to discuss why voters sometimes contradict their partisan beliefs on ballot measures. Make sure you select the language your Podcast episode is recorded in when uploading your audio. Two days after Election Day, control of the U.S. House and Senate still hangs in the balance as votes are tallied in the Western states. Then the content will get automatically transcribed. Recent polls have sent some contradictory messages, but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by three points or less polling average. The crew discusses the various types of legislation different states may adopt if Roe v. Wade is overturned, and how those policies jibe with local public opinion. He has also reported audio documentaries at FiveThirtyEight, including the monthslong series "The Gerrymandering Project." His work has been heard on NPR, WNYC, On The Media, CBC, Wisconsin Public Radio and the University of Cambridge's ELECTION podcast. In 2018, the operations were transferred from ESPN to sister property ABC News (also under parent The Walt Disney Company ). Galen speaks with reporter Kaleigh Rogers about how candidates who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election did in the midterms and what the future of election denialism looks like. Its October and the surprises are rolling in. What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? They also address a listener question that suggests Republicans achieve their policy goals more often than Democrats. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk about why Republicans are not backing a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol. Ron DeSantis over Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential primary. geoffrey.skelley: After West Virginia, the most vulnerable Democratic seats are Ohio and Montana. The crew discusses what her path to the nomination could look like, given that Trump and Florida Gov. Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. 00:14:18 - Federal health agencies asked states to pause in their use of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine while U.S. officials investigate reports of an extre r/fivethirtyeight. The crew discusses the races to watch in Tuesday night's primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky. They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on what abortion restrictions to pass. The crew debates whether a recent Gallup poll showing that more Americans identify with the GOP than the Democratic Party is a "good or bad use of polling." Politics Podcast: Baby Boomers' Strength Was In Their Numbers. Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and Left flank of both parties, although there was a sizable protest vote in some instances. This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. FiveThirtyEight Politics Transcripts | Podgist FiveThirtyEight Politics https://fivethirtyeight.com/podcasts/ Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. Serial's new true-crime podcast, The Coldest Case in Laramie, revisits a 1985 murder. Above, storm clouds over downtown Laramie, Wyo., on Aug. 13, 2022. The crew discusses how the other nine Republicans are faring in their bids to win reelection and debate whether CNNs new polling methodology is a good or bad use of polling. The crew talks about the threat of a government shutdown and debt default, as well as how likely it is that Democrats get their legislative priorities passed. It's a big election week for liberal democracies. Democratic representative from California Adam Schiff discusses why he thinks American democracy is in trouble, which he lays out in his new book "Midnight In Washington: How We Almost Lost Our Democracy And Still Could.". Find us at ThisDayPod.com. Galen Druke discusses that question with pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson and writers Ramesh Ponnuru and Henry Olsen, who have all spent their careers in Republican politics and conservative thought. @Nate_Cohn: The Democrats are putting up an impressive showing in VA-4, the first special congressional election of the cycle. Then the team debates if a surge of women registering to vote in June could be linked to the Supreme Courts recent abortion decision. The crew discusses how Bidens approval rating may impact the midterm election, whether tracking Google search terms over time is a better barometer than traditional polling, and how Black voters are changing the political landscape of Georgia. In Matthew Continetti's new book, The Right: The Hundred Year War For American Conservatism, he argues that in order to understand where the right is heading, you have to understand where it's been. Economics Professor at George Washington University, Tara Sinclair, joins to explain what is going on with the economy and the potential consequences of a spike in prices. FiveThirtyEight Politics 3 days ago Biden's Second State Of The Union Was His First Campaign Speech President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address on Tuesday to a newly divided. Welcome to Internet Archive TV News! send a tweet. As the broader electorate shifted left in 2020, compared to 2016, Latino voters shifted 8 percentage points to the right. In 2021, cities around the country are choosing mayors to try to lead them through a long list of challenges, both pre-existing and brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. The crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. The recall effort ultimately failed by a sizable margin. The data behind that evolution is striking. Reporter Greg Bluestein explains how it happened in his new book, Flipped: How Georgia Turned Purple and Broke the Monopoly on Republican Power, and discusses with Galen what it means for 2022 and beyond. The crew follows up on last weeks Republican 2024 primary draft with its first Democratic primary draft. The State Of The Polls, 2016. Politics Podcast: Why The Federal Reserve's Power Is 'Limitless', Politics Podcast: How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear, Politics Podcast: Some Republicans Are Souring On Aid To Ukraine. The crew puts Georgia's new voting laws in context and discusses the challenges facing the Biden administration on immigration policy in the short and long term. The results are mixed in terms of which factions of both parties performed well and the marquee Republican Senate primary race in Pennsylvania is still close to call and could remain that way for days.